$1B Bet on 2024 United States Presidential Election, Trump Maintains Narrow Lead

Posted on: August 2, 2024, 07:42h. 

Last updated on: August 2, 2024, 09:31h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

It’s illegal to bet on political outcomes in the United States with a regulated sportsbook, but wagering exchanges continue to operate in a gray zone.

election odds Harris Trump 2024
VP Kamala Harris continues to inch closer to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 betting odds. The November 5 presidential election is expected to be close. (Image: Financial Times)

After the US Supreme Court gave states the right to determine their own laws on sports betting through their landmark 2018 decision that repealed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) that had limited single-game wagering to Nevada, nearly 40 states have passed laws to govern sports gambling. Many of those states based their sports betting rules on Nevada, the state considered to be the “gold standard” of casino and gambling regulation.

The Nevada Gaming Commission (NGC) has always prohibited political betting. The US government has historically urged Nevada, and now newer sports betting states, to shun odds and lines on political outcomes on the belief that such gambling could “degrade the integrity of the uniquely American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process,” so said Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Rostin Benham.

Benham’s CFTC has proposed banning political wagering exchanges, too.

The CFTC, under Benham’s predecessors, granted certain peer-to-peer wagering exchanges “No-Action Relief” letters suggesting they could operate in the US without risk of legal prosecution. The concessions were given because the exchanges provide valuable data insights and serve as educational tools.

Exchanges Pulling in Big Money

The 2024 presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is shaping up to be extraordinarily close. The race, which was only set last month after President Joe Biden announced he would adhere to calls from his party leaders to step down, is attracting a precipitous amount of money on the leading exchanges.

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform that launched in 2020, reports having more than $474.4 million risked on the 2024 presidential election. Trump remains the betting front-runner with implied odds of 54%. Harris is at 45%.

On Smarkets, about $7 million has been bet on the November 5 victor. Trump is favored there too at implied odds of 52%.

The Betfair exchange has Trump favored at 5/6 to Harris at 6/5. The exchange says it’s facilitating over $600K in bets a day on the election.

PredictIt has seen a surge in wagers on its 2024 US presidential election market since late June. Bettors on the exchange have purchased nearly 31.6 million shares of candidates becoming the next commander-in-chief.

PredictIt is the lone exchange showing Harris as the favorite. Her shares are trading at 55 cents to Trump at 49 cents. Winning shares are redeemed at $1 each.

Overseas Dominates Action?

The exchanges have facilitated about a half-billion dollars in bets on the 2024 US presidential election. Even more money is thought to have been wagered in the UK, where oddsmakers and their customers have for decades enjoyed political betting.

High Street betting shops have seen a flurry of action on the 2024 contest, as the well-known, divisive Trump regularly attracts big bets, and many of them.

William Hill, one of the largest bookies in the UK, has the former casino owner as the front-runner at 4/5, or implied odds of 55.6%. Harris is at even money — 50% implied odds.